2025 Week 11 Midweek MACtion Preview: Kent State Golden Flashes @ Ball State Cardinals

Game notes

• Time and date: Wednesday, November 5 at 7:00 p.m. ET
• Network: ESPNU
• Location: Scheumann Stadium — Muncie, IN
• Spread: Ball State (-1.5)
• Over/under: 47.5
• All-time series: Ball State leads, 24-8
• Last meeting: Ball State 37, Kent State 35 — October 12, 2024
• Current streak: Ball State, 3 (2022-24)

Setting the scene

Midweek MACtion returns Wednesday night, and Kent State (3-5, 2-2 MAC) and Ball State (3-5, 2-2 MAC) converge in Muncie sporting identical overall and conference records. Both the Golden Flashes and Cardinals are vastly improved from last year’s products, with Kent State lapping its 2024 win total by three and Ball State matching its prior year win total with four games remaining on the docket.

One of those improvements under a first-year head coach takes another step forward. Will it be Mark Carney’s Flashes or Mike Uremovich’s Cardinals?

Kent State Golden Flashes outlook

Kent State found its head coach. After the Golden Flashes stormed back from an 18-point deficit to defeat Bowling Green on Oct. 25, the university decided to shed the interim label from Mark Carney and make him the full-time head coach. Carney was handed the interim reins in April after a sudden dismissal of previous head coach Kenni Burns, and despite dealing with a difficult hand of cards, Carney has thrived.

Kent State was 0-12 a year ago, ranking last in the country or near the nadir in virtually every statistical category. Sure, the Golden Flashes had a gauntlet of a non-conference slate, but in MAC play, they have shown the ability to compete with just about anybody in the conference, housing UMass by 36, upending Bowling Green by three, and losing a last-minute thriller to Buffalo by three.

One significant reason for Kent State’s progress is quarterback Dru DeShields. The redshirt freshman never took a snap before this year, but he looks like a poised veteran. DeShields demonstrates good ball security with 11 touchdowns to two interceptions, and he averages over 14 yards per completion in an offense that relies heavily on big plays.

DeShields has delivered a 75-yard touchdown in three of seven outing this year, regularly hitting home run threats like Cade Wolford (26.3 yards per reception, 6 touchdowns) and Ardell Banks (21.7 yards per reception 1 touchdown) on streaks and deep posts. What Kent State needs more consistently is finding a way to sustain drives when the 50-yard pickup isn’t there.

The Golden Flashes are sixth-to-last nationally in rushing yards per game at 88, picking up 2.6 yards per rush. They’ll look to jump-start this unit with the tandem of Gavin Garcia and Jordan Nubin. Although it’s not the offense’s best feature, when Kent State produces at least 90 rushing yards, it is 3-1 with a 3-point loss to Buffalo — highlighting the essentiality of ground production.

On defense, Kent State’s numbers suffered significantly after allowing an average of 57.3 points per game to Texas Tech, Florida State, and Oklahoma. The unit has played better against MAC opponents, surrendering 25.8 points per game vs. conference competition. Kent State is invading backfields at a much higher rate this year, notching 5.8 tackles for loss per game after a 3-day, 7-TFL day against Bowling Green. Six different Golden Flashes have at least four stops behind the line of scrimmage this year, led by inside linebacker Mason Woods who has 56 tackles and 6.5 TFLs. Outside linebacker CJ Young is another veteran on the defense to watch as the leading tackler who also thrives in coverage against the short-throw game.

Kent State is still 130th in run defense and 122nd in pass defense, yet the Golden Flashes’ three wins were stellar defensive showings where the defensive line was able to win in the trenches and provide pressure all game long. One way to improve this defense is to force more turnovers, as Kent State currently ranks bottom 10 in the FBS with six takeaways through eight games.

Ball State Cardinals outlook

Ball State is in the midst of a roller coaster year one under Mike Uremovich. The Cardinals have arguably the most impressive win in the MAC, as the lone team to take down reigning champion Ohio — rallying back from a 14-0 second half deficit to stun the Bobcats 20-14. Ball State also outpaced an Akron team which secured its 4th-win Tuesday night. Those are great résumé entries for a rebuilding team.

But Ball State’s losses haven’t been very aesthetically pleasing. The Cardinals have been shut out twice (by Purdue and Western Michigan) and held to seven points or fewer on four occasions. They field the FBS’s 130th-ranked scoring offense at 16.4 points per game, checking in at fourth-to-last in the country in total offense (one spot above Kent State).

Ball State showed offensive capabilities in a 42-28 win over Akron, unleashing the run game for a season-high scoring output. Running back Qua Ashley has games of 154 and 143 rushing yards this season (both wins), but in losses, the junior is averaging 39 yards per game — highlighting how essential it is to get him going. Another source of mobility for the offense is quarterback Kiael Kelly who has 417 rushing yards and five touchdowns on the season, utilizing his scrambling ability to regularly extend and improvise passing plays.

The aerial attack isn’t Ball State’s strength, ranking fourth-to-last in the FBS, but the Cardinals can unleash it at times, typically involving wide receivers Qian Magwood and Eric Weatherly. Kelly threw for a season-high 209 when Ball State played UConn within six points and produced his second-best output at 185 in the upset win over Ohio. But one thing that derails the passing game is sacks. Ball State lets up the fourth-most in the FBS at 3.5 per game, and this is a combination of offensive line play and Kelly’s relentless effort to extend plays with the ball in his hands.

When Ball State is on defense, all eyes are on No. 44. Defensive end Nathan Voorhis ranks second in the FBS with 10.0 sacks, only trailing Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey in the category. Voorhis has a sack in six of eight games, and it’s no surprise his best performances — 2.5 vs. New Hampshire (FCS) and 3.5 vs. Ohio — both resulted in Ball State victories. He is a violent pass rusher, frequently throwing aside linemen or simply powering through them on his way to the quarterback.

Although Ball State generates sacks at a high clip, stopping the run hasn’t been as easy for the front. A struggling Northern Illinois offense just posted 305 yards on the Cardinals, and tackling running backs at first contact needs to be prioritized. Outside of Voorhis, nobody exceeds four tackles for loss on the team, so creating negative plays needs to be of greater emphasis moving forward. Another emphasis involves winning the turnover battle which Ball State has not accomplished once in eight outings. Look for defensive backs such as Eric McClain (two forced fumbles, one interception) to provide aggressive play in order create opportune field position for the offense.

Prediction

The typical lack of scoring observed by both teams sets up for a close, lower-scoring game. Ball State and Kent State have looked quite even through their identical 8-game résumés, and this one should be a tightly-contested game down to the wire. Perhaps the strongest unit in this matchup is Ball State’s defense which limited Ohio to 14 thanks to the efforts of Nathan Voorhis.

That Ball State defense produces an extra crunch time stop and wins in its home backdrop of Scheumann Stadium, where it is a perfect 3-0 on the season.

Prediction: Ball State 23, Kent State 21

Source: Sports Yahoo