NFL Draft Live: Did we hit or miss on each first-round pick?

The NFL Draft’s first round is in the books and Rivals recruiting director Adam Gorney shared his memories of each pick throughout the first round, and explained why they were ranked where they were in high school.

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Gorney’s lookback: Cam Ward is the first No. 1 in Rivals history dating back to 2002 that was unranked in high school. He was not heralded in high school, went to Incarnate Word and shined before transferring to Washington State and dominating there and finished his career at Miami.

It was not a clean path and he was not the marquee in the 2020 class that was led at QB by Bryce Young but Ward earned everything along the way. LeSean McCoy said he wasn’t sold on Ward because he wasn’t a five-star guy. In a bad quarterback draft class, Ward is by far the best of the bunch and earned being taken No. 1 overall every step of the way.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Miss

Gorney’s lookback: There will be a discussion about whether Colorado‘s Travis Hunter can play offense and defense in the NFL and while it’s unlikely, the former five-star is one of the most impactful players we’ve seen in Rivals history. He has truly endless energy, loves the game, loves competition and he’s by far the best athlete in this draft class.

Watching Hunter’s tape is like watching Charles Woodson‘s or Champ Bailey‘s on fast forward. From a 7on7 tournament during COVID in Bullhead City, Ariz., to numerous camps and all-star games through his high school career, Hunter was always a human highlight reel and he also had the biggest signing day flip in Rivals history going from Florida State to Jackson State.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Hit

Gorney’s lookback: Rated as a four-star linebacker inside the Rivals250, Abdul Carter was not the fastest in the world but he hit like a truck at Philadelphia (Pa.) La Salle. Penn State didn’t love him at first, offered him but then had him come back for summer camp to see if he could commit. It was a wise decision as he picked the Nittany Lions over Ole Miss and South Carolina mainly.

He converted to an edge rusher and had an amazing 24 tackles for loss and 12 sacks this season, even with one arm at times because of injury. Carter’s progression is also an important note for bigger linebackers in high school – moving down to the edge might be the wisest move.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Push

Gorney’s lookback: Will Campbell was outstanding at the Rivals Camp in Dallas and we didn’t pull the trigger on making him a five-star. The four-star offensive tackle has great athleticism and there’s a country-strong mentality to his game. Yeah, his arms are a lot shorter than many others but it did not hurt him in high school, he dominated at LSU and he should’ve been a five-star coming out.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Push

Gorney’s lookback: Mason Graham was a beast coming out of Anaheim (Calif.) Servite as a two-way lineman as he looked great at both offensive and defensive line. As time went on, Graham started to emerge as a great interior defensive lineman who could use his physical nature to win at the line of scrimmage. He only got better and better at Michigan where he continued to develop physically and from a technique standpoint.

We loved Graham a lot in high school but clearly not enough as we didn’t ID him as a five-star prospect.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Push

Gorney’s lookback: Ashton Jeanty was a two-star coming out of Frisco (Texas) Lone Star which looks foolish now since he put up massive numbers in high school but when he went to Boise State it was still a question whether he would play running back, receiver or come in as an athlete.

Jeanty was a Heisman Trophy finalist for the Broncos this season as he bounced off all comers this season. Penn State essentially shut him down but he had a great game against Oregon and I just wonder if taking a running back this high is worth it.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Miss

Gorney’s lookback: We saw Armand Membou in high school and he attended Rivals Camp but his body needed some reshaping and we weren’t sold that someone just over 6-foot-4 could make it as an elite offensive tackle at the next level and beyond.

We were wrong because his arm length at 82 inches is elite, he can power through defensive linemen and he has outstanding balance. We were wrong on Membou, who we thought would have a nice college career but wouldn’t be nearly as dominant as he turned out to be at Missouri.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Miss

Gorney’s lookback: There have been questions about whether Tetairoa McMillan “loves football” and to be honest I had the same concerns the first few times I met him. He was playing in – let’s call it – an underground football 7on7 event during COVID next to a shooting range in Corona, Calif. He was so quiet and reserved it was hard to imagine he could turn it on. So quiet that he was uncomfortable doing an interview. He went to Hawaii once during the recruiting process and didn’t even take his phone.

But between the lines he’s an absolute dog. He’s ultra-competitive and he has unreal balance, playmaking ability and hands. Pairing him with someone like Bryce Young will be a perfect fit.

Over time as I got to know him better, I only liked him more and more and he ended up as a five-star receiver. TMac was also a very willing blocker in games and I loved to see him turn that on as well.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Hit

Gorney’s lookback: Congratulations to Kelvin Banks because his resume at Texas made him a first-round selection but for us in the rankings business, this one is heartbreaking. We had Banks as a five-star earlier in the cycle and he was phenomenal at the Dallas Rivals Camp. He just bullied everybody, had a great, barrel-chested frame and was just awesome. But then we saw him struggle mightily at the Under Armour Game. He was curiously bad, and we overreacted and dropped him to a four-star.

We were wrong. He’s 6-foot-5, 315 pounds and has a wingspan of 84 3/8 inches. What else could we have possibly wanted? If he was just OK at the Under Armour Game, he would’ve stayed a five and rightfully so.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Push

Gorney’s lookback: We never saw Colston Loveland in high school as he went to school in rural Idaho and never attended any big events. His tape was exceptional, though, and he ended up as a four-star prospect but outside of the Rivals250 because we wanted to be conservative on his ranking since he was playing very low-level competition and we didn’t see him anywhere.

Michigan beat out Oregon State and Boise State in what ended up being an easy call. But with Penn State‘s Tyler Warren still out there, this doesn’t seem like the best pick possible.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Push

Gorney’s lookback: Mykel Williams is still 20 years old and if Travon Walker was worthy of being the No. 1 overall pick then San Francisco is getting a steal here in the first round. Williams plays hard, has all the perfect measureables at 6-foot-5 and 267 pounds with long arms and looks like the prototypical NFL edge rusher.

And big credit goes to Georgia coach KirbySmart because until midway through his senior season, Williams was committed to USC. It was only because Smart never gave up, kept going after Williams and then finally flipped him after an in-home visit that Georgia landed him.

Williams has every metric to be successful in the NFL and beyond as a former five-star.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Hit

Gorney’s lookback:We should’ve been higher on Tyler Booker. He measured just under 6-foot-5 and 321 pounds with extraordinarily long arms at more than 84 inches so that could be a learning lesson for us moving forward – take a shot on guys with all the metrics.

Booker was not as physical in high school as he was once he got to Alabama and really adopted a tough, mean mentality on that offensive line. Georgia was believed to be the frontrunner in his recruitment with Florida, Oregon and others but the Crimson Tide won out.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Push

Gorney’s lookback: What has this draft told elite high school defensive tackles so far? Want to be a first rounder, Michigan is not a bad place to be. Mason Graham went earlier in the first round and now Kenneth Grant is off the board.

The concern with Grant coming out of Merrillville, Ind., was that he was 340 pounds and didn’t necessarily carry it all that well. He was fast and physical for his size but we clearly did not see a potential first-rounder there, especially since he was ranked as a high three-star.

It is a little surprising that Miami went with Grant since Oregon‘s Derrick Harmon was still on the board.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Miss

Gorney’s lookback: Tyler Warren was the best tight end in this draft and here’s why: Not only did Warren have 104 catches for 1,233 yards and eight touchdowns this season but Penn State‘s receiving corps was so bad that every opponent in the Big Ten knew the ball was going to Warren and they couldn’t stop him.

He can be used inside, outside, in motion, all kinds of ways. He showed some of that in high school first as a Virginia Tech commit before flipping to Penn State but OC AndyKotelnicki and others in State College did a phenomenal job being creative to get him the ball. In terms of a three-star ranking, though, this was a missed opportunity.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Miss

Gorney’s lookback: Jalon Walker wanted to be listed at 6-foot-3 and 225 pounds in high school but he measured at 6-foot-1 and 243 at the combine. From a measurement standpoint, and especially coming off the edge, I see why we didn’t make Walker a five-star. But sometimes you learn the lesson to throw out just those numbers and look at production, speed, burst off the edge and the ability to have an endless motor. Walker was all of those things at Georgia.

There are prettier edge rushers in this draft but Atlanta was very wise to pick the local Georgia Bulldogs standout because no one on the defensive side of the ball flies around like Walker.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Push

Gorney’s lookback: The No. 2 overall player in the 2022 class, we clearly loved Walter Nolen in high school. He was big and mean but right at 300 pounds where he could overpower people up the middle or shoot the gap and get in the backfield.

At just under 6-foot-4 with more than 80-inch arms, Nolen is faster than he even looks and can slip by offensive guards at will or push them back into the quarterback.

First at Texas A&M and then at Ole Miss, Nolen got better and better in college and backed up his ranking.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Hit

Gorney’s lookback: We didn’t have Shemar Stewart as a five-star until after the Under Armour Game but when we saw him in person, there was just a projection factor there that we took into account – and now we’re super happy we did.

Stewart looks like the dream defensive end at 6-foot-5 and 267 pounds and he has an extraordinary wingspan at nearly 85 inches. The complete package from a physical standpoint is there in Stewart and if draft picks were based solely off looks, he would fight for No. 1 overall.

It’s still befuddling that he never had more than 1.5 sacks in any of his three seasons at Texas A&M though.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Hit

Gorney’s lookback: Leading up to this draft, a lot of analysts talked about this one being about fit more than anything else. Grey Zabel is a fit pick for the Seattle Seahawks, who have excellent young tackles and needed to shore up the inside of that offensive line.

Zabel was unranked coming out of high school and had no Power Four offers. He could’ve left and gotten some nice NIL deals but he stayed at North Dakota State and dominated there. His measurements aren’t off the charts but his dominance was at that level.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Miss

Gorney’s lookback: Maybe RogerGoodell doesn’t know how to pronounce his name but Emeka Ebguka has been phenomenal since high school. He’s such a crafty route runner, so smart and has such reliable hands.

It looked like for a long time that the five-star receiver from Steilacoom, Wash., could end up at Oklahoma but then Ohio State got more involved and he picked the Buckeyes.

Over the last three seasons, Egbuka – who is a lot like Jaxon Smith-Njigba – had nearly 200 catches for the Buckeyes and this past season he had more receptions than Jeremiah Smith for the national champs.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Hit