Aussie predictor
AUSSIE Predictor
Date | Team 1 | Team 2 | Score Prediction | Confidence | Betting predictions Team 1 Win | Betting predictions Draw | Betting predictions Team 2 Win | Final Score | |||
27th Jul 2024, 02:35 EDT | Brisbane Lions 1.720 | Gold Coast Suns 2.040 | 108:71 | 60.4% | 55.43% | 8.1% | 36.47% | 93:65 | |||
27th Jul 2024, 02:35 EDT | Essendon Bombers 1.620 | St Kilda Saints 2.210 | 42:67 | 50.4% | 35.52% | 8% | 56.48% | 55:108 | |||
27th Jul 2024, 05:30 EDT | Greater Western Sydney | Melbourne Demons | Unlock | Unlock Prediction | |||||||
27th Jul 2024, 06:10 EDT | West Coast Eagles 7.060 | Fremantle Dockers 1.080 | 37:110 | 78.7% | 22.93% | 9% | 68.07% | 75:110 | |||
27th Jul 2024, 23:10 EDT | Richmond Tigers 3.760 | Collingwood Magpies 1.250 | 47:121 | 70.7% | 25.18% | 10.2% | 64.62% | 67:93 |
Value bets for today based on Scores Predictor and Kelly Criterion:
The Kelly Criterion is a bet-sizing technique which balances both risk and reward for the advantage gambler. It determines the optimal % of your total capital (ie bankroll) that you can bet on a single outcome or game. Here is the formula for the Kelly Criterion copied from Wikipedia:
Where:
- f* is the fraction of the current bankroll to wager;
- b is the net odds received on the wager (“b to 1”); that is, you could win $b (plus the $1 wagered) for a $1 bet
- p is the probability of winning;
- q is the probability of losing, which is 1 − p.
As an example, if a gamble has a 60% chance of winning (p = 0.60, q = 0.40), and the gambler receives 1-to-1 odds on a winning bet (b = 1), then the gambler should bet 20% of his bankroll at each opportunity (f* = 0.20), in order to maximize the long-run growth rate of the bankroll.
If the gambler has zero edge, i.e. if b = q / p, then the criterion recommends the gambler bets nothing.
If the edge is negative (b < q / p) the formula gives a negative result, indicating that the gambler should take the other side of the bet.
Date | Team 1 | Team 2 | Optimal Stake Part | Bet On | Final Score |
Australia AFL 27th Jul 2024, 02:35 EDT | Essendon Bombers 1.620 | St Kilda Saints 2.210 | 0.21 | St Kilda Saints ML | 55:108 |