Aussie predictor

AUSSIE Predictor

DateTeam 1Team 2Score PredictionConfidenceBetting predictions Team 1 WinBetting predictions DrawBetting predictions Team 2 WinFinal Score

27th Jul 2024,

02:35 EDT

Brisbane Lions
1.720
Gold Coast Suns
2.040
108:71
60.4%
55.43%8.1%36.47%

27th Jul 2024,

02:35 EDT

Essendon Bombers
1.620
St Kilda Saints
2.210
42:67
50.4%
35.52%8%56.48%

27th Jul 2024,

05:30 EDT

Greater Western Sydney
Melbourne Demons
Unlock

27th Jul 2024,

06:10 EDT

West Coast Eagles
7.020
Fremantle Dockers
1.080
37:110
78.7%
22.93%9%68.07%

27th Jul 2024,

23:10 EDT

Richmond Tigers
3.780
Collingwood Magpies
1.240
47:121
70.7%
25.18%10.2%64.62%

Value bets for today based on Scores Predictor and Kelly Criterion:

What is Kelly Criterion?

The Kelly Criterion is a bet-sizing technique which balances both risk and reward for the advantage gambler. It determines the optimal % of your total capital (ie bankroll) that you can bet on a single outcome or game. Here is the formula for the Kelly Criterion copied from Wikipedia:

Where:

  • f* is the fraction of the current bankroll to wager;
  • b is the net odds received on the wager (“b to 1”); that is, you could win $b (plus the $1 wagered) for a $1 bet
  • p is the probability of winning;
  • q is the probability of losing, which is 1 − p.

As an example, if a gamble has a 60% chance of winning (p = 0.60, q = 0.40), and the gambler receives 1-to-1 odds on a winning bet (b = 1), then the gambler should bet 20% of his bankroll at each opportunity (f* = 0.20), in order to maximize the long-run growth rate of the bankroll.

If the gambler has zero edge, i.e. if b = q / p, then the criterion recommends the gambler bets nothing.

If the edge is negative (b < q / p) the formula gives a negative result, indicating that the gambler should take the other side of the bet.

DateTeam 1Team 2Optimal Stake PartBet OnFinal Score
Australia AFL

27th Jul 2024,

02:35 EDT

Essendon Bombers
1.620
St Kilda Saints
2.210
0.21
St Kilda Saints ML