Baseball Predictor & Point Spreads
BASEBALL Predictor
Date | Team 1 | Team 2 | Score Prediction First Inning | Score Prediction Final Score | Confidence | Betting predictions Team 1 Win | Betting predictions Team 2 Win | First Inning Result | Final Score |
Mexico LMB | |||||||||
9th Sep 2024, 21:30 EDT | Mexico 1.540 | Monterrey 2.360 | 0:2 | 14:8 | 67.7% | 73.68% | 26.32% | 4:0 | 4:2 |
Value bets for today based on Scores Predictor and Kelly Criterion:
The Kelly Criterion is a bet-sizing technique which balances both risk and reward for the advantage gambler. It determines the optimal % of your total capital (ie bankroll) that you can bet on a single outcome or game. Here is the formula for the Kelly Criterion copied from Wikipedia:
Where:
- f* is the fraction of the current bankroll to wager;
- b is the net odds received on the wager (“b to 1”); that is, you could win $b (plus the $1 wagered) for a $1 bet
- p is the probability of winning;
- q is the probability of losing, which is 1 − p.
As an example, if a gamble has a 60% chance of winning (p = 0.60, q = 0.40), and the gambler receives 1-to-1 odds on a winning bet (b = 1), then the gambler should bet 20% of his bankroll at each opportunity (f* = 0.20), in order to maximize the long-run growth rate of the bankroll.
If the gambler has zero edge, i.e. if b = q / p, then the criterion recommends the gambler bets nothing.
If the edge is negative (b < q / p) the formula gives a negative result, indicating that the gambler should take the other side of the bet.
Date | Team 1 | Team 2 | Optimal Stake Part | Bet On | Final Score |
Mexico LMB 9th Sep 2024, 21:30 EDT | Mexico 1.540 | Monterrey 2.360 | 0.25 | Mexico ML | 4:2 |