Rugby Predictor Season 2023 – 2024
RUGBY Predictor
Date | Team 1 | Team 2 | Score Prediction | Confidence | Betting predictions Team 1 Win | Betting predictions Draw | Betting predictions Team 2 Win | Final Score | |||
Australia NRL | |||||||||||
8th Sep 2024, 00:00 EDT | Cronulla Sharks 2.070 | Manly Sea Eagles 1.785 | 32:33 | 62.4% | 38.4% | 21.2% | 40.4% | 40:20 | |||
8th Sep 2024, 02:05 EDT | Dolphins 2.165 | Newcastle Knights 1.710 | 8:45 | 83.8% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 82.4% | 6:14 | |||
England Super League | |||||||||||
8th Sep 2024, 10:00 EDT | London Broncos | Huddersfield | Unlock | Unlock Prediction | |||||||
New Zealand ITM Cup | |||||||||||
8th Sep 2024, 00:35 EDT | Northland 2.070 | Counties Manukau 1.785 | 19:36 | 72.7% | 28.05% | 9.9% | 62.05% | 14:25 |
Value bets for today based on Scores Predictor:
Date | Team 1 | Team 2 | Score Prediction | Total | Bookmaker Total | Final Score | Value Bet |
Australia NRL 8th Sep 2024, 00:00 EDT | Cronulla Sharks 2.070 | Manly Sea Eagles 1.785 | 32:33 | 65 | 53.50 | 40:20 | Bet over 53.50 |
New Zealand ITM Cup 8th Sep 2024, 00:35 EDT | Northland 2.070 | Counties Manukau 1.785 | 19:36 | 55 | 60.50 | 14:25 | Bet under 60.50 |
Australia NRL 8th Sep 2024, 02:05 EDT | Dolphins 2.165 | Newcastle Knights 1.710 | 8:45 | 53 | 51.50 | 6:14 | Bet over 51.50 |
Value bets for today based on Scores Predictor and Kelly Criterion:
The Kelly Criterion is a bet-sizing technique which balances both risk and reward for the advantage gambler. It determines the optimal % of your total capital (ie bankroll) that you can bet on a single outcome or game. Here is the formula for the Kelly Criterion copied from Wikipedia:
Where:
- f* is the fraction of the current bankroll to wager;
- b is the net odds received on the wager (“b to 1”); that is, you could win $b (plus the $1 wagered) for a $1 bet
- p is the probability of winning;
- q is the probability of losing, which is 1 − p.
As an example, if a gamble has a 60% chance of winning (p = 0.60, q = 0.40), and the gambler receives 1-to-1 odds on a winning bet (b = 1), then the gambler should bet 20% of his bankroll at each opportunity (f* = 0.20), in order to maximize the long-run growth rate of the bankroll.
If the gambler has zero edge, i.e. if b = q / p, then the criterion recommends the gambler bets nothing.
If the edge is negative (b < q / p) the formula gives a negative result, indicating that the gambler should take the other side of the bet.
Date | Team 1 | Team 2 | Optimal Stake Part | Bet On | Final Score |
New Zealand ITM Cup 8th Sep 2024, 00:35 EDT | Northland 2.070 | Counties Manukau 1.785 | 0.14 | Counties Manukau ML | 14:25 |
Australia NRL 8th Sep 2024, 02:05 EDT | Dolphins 2.165 | Newcastle Knights 1.710 | 0.58 | Newcastle Knights ML | 6:14 |